Resurgence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s Second Jihadi Campaign: Implicationsfor Pakistan

Abstract

The rise of the Afghan Taliban as victorious against the Western military alliance in Afghanistan in 2021 became a fueling force for all types of existing militant movements in the region, but Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a regional Sunni militant organisation in Pakistan’s tribal areas, is more to gain, given its closest alliance with the Afghan Taliban. This study explains how and why TTP has been inspired by its mentor—the Afghan Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan—and bent on establishing its version of a Sharia state through its second jihadi campaign in Pakistan. TTP’s strategic and political goal is perpetual, but its operational and tactical posture has changed, as the U.S. post-withdrawal strategic environment in the Pak-Afghan border—the one that is suited more to all types of terrorists to manoeuvre and the other that will be more difficult for the Pakistani state to counter. The Afghan Taliban have yet to cut the knees of TTP’s central command in Afghanistan, an imperative long held demanded by Islamabad to be fulfilled by the Taliban, thus the era of differentiating between the good and bad Taliban is over. Resultantly, this situation will run counter to Pakistan’s traditional threat perception that the Afghan Taliban are pro-Pakistan.